Finance

Australia CPI Gauge Misses Estimate as RBA Set to Stand Pat

Australia CPI Gauge Misses Estimate as RBA Set to Stand Pat

A gauge of Australian inflation came in below forecast in October as government rebates helped pull down key price drivers such as electricity and rental costs.

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Bloomberg News

Bloomberg News

Swati Pandey

Published Nov 26, 2024  •  2 minute read

A shopper exits Paddy's Markets in Sydney. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
A shopper exits Paddy’s Markets in Sydney. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg Photo by Brent Lewin /Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — A gauge of Australian inflation came in below forecast in October as government rebates helped pull down key price drivers such as electricity and rental costs.

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The consumer price index indicator advanced 2.1% from a year earlier, below economists’ estimate of a 2.3% increase, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. The headline figure has now remained within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target for three months.

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In contrast, the trimmed mean core measure, which smooths out volatile items and is the focus of the RBA’s attention, climbed to 3.5% from 3.2% in the prior month.

“The falls in electricity and fuel had a significant impact on the annual CPI measure this month,” said Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics.

The currency and yield on policy sensitive three-year government notes edged up after the release. Money markets reckon the RBA is likely to stay on hold until May.

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The data — the first official measure of consumer prices for the fourth quarter — will be an important input for the RBA’s December meeting, when it’s expected to keep rates at 4.35%. While economists reckon the bank’s next move is down, they’ve been pushing back the timing given core inflation has been sticky and amid a highly uncertain global backdrop.

The RBA has kept rates unchanged since November 2023, and has been highlighting that aggregate demand still exceeds the economy’s supply capacity. Policymakers remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation, with Governor Michele Bullock saying she expects to leave rates at current restrictive levels for the time being. 

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The RBA’s goal is to bring consumer prices sustainably back within target and as a result it’s unlikely to react to a single report.  Bullock recently noted that the monthly inflation gauge is “quite volatile,” doesn’t capture all items and can be influenced by one-off or temporary factors. 

Indeed, part of the reason the bank is focused on core inflation is that recent government energy rebates have helped suppress the headline figure.

Wednesday’s report also showed:

  • Top contributors were food and non-alcoholic beverages, up 3.3%, recreation and culture, 4.3% higher and alcohol and tobacco, up 6%
  • The 6.7% annual rise in rents was partly offset by increased government support
  • Electricity fell 35.6% due to the combined impact of national and state government energy rebates
  • New dwelling prices, which capture new builds and major renovations, rose 4.2%, the ABS said

—With assistance from Shinjini Datta.

(Adds further details from report.)

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